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Key takeaways

Key takeaways

What is the scope of this industry report?

The US restaurant chain market comprises businesses that operate multi-location establishments across different price points, service levels and dining formats. Herein, fast food chains focus on speed, low prices and minimal service, while fast-casual chains are focused on menu variations and some aspects of casual service. Casual dining establishments provide full table service, broader menus and a more relaxed ambience, whereas fine dining restaurants emphasize premium cuisine, refined atmosphere and elevated service standards. Accordingly, we have segmented the US market based on service types into: (i) fast food, (ii) casual dining, (iii) fast casual and (iv) fine dining.

What is the scope of this industry report?

The US restaurant chain market comprises businesses that operate multi-location establishments across different price points, service levels and dining formats. Herein, fast food chains focus on speed, low prices and minimal service, while fast-casual chains are focused on menu variations and some aspects of casual service. Casual dining establishments provide full table service, broader menus and a more relaxed ambience, whereas fine dining restaurants emphasize premium cuisine, refined atmosphere and elevated service standards. Accordingly, we have segmented the US market based on service types into: (i) fast food, (ii) casual dining, (iii) fast casual and (iv) fine dining.

What is the scope of this industry report?

The US restaurant chain market comprises businesses that operate multi-location establishments across different price points, service levels and dining formats. Herein, fast food chains focus on speed, low prices and minimal service, while fast-casual chains are focused on menu variations and some aspects of casual service. Casual dining establishments provide full table service, broader menus and a more relaxed ambience, whereas fine dining restaurants emphasize premium cuisine, refined atmosphere and elevated service standards. Accordingly, we have segmented the US market based on service types into: (i) fast food, (ii) casual dining, (iii) fast casual and (iv) fine dining.

What does the Restaurant chains market landscape look like in the US?

The US restaurant chain landscape remains structurally diverse, as the top 50 chains account for ~61% of total industry spending while representing only ~24% of all locations. Of these 50 chains, 34 are quick-service restaurants, 11 are casual dining chains and 5 are midscale operators (Circana, March 2025). While chains represent ~77% of fast-food establishments in the US, they account for only ~39% of full-service restaurants, wherein the majority operate as standalone units. Across fast food and fast casual segments, many large chains rely on a franchise-based model to scale quickly with lower capital outlay (e.g. Yum! Brands), while some incumbents retain company-owned locations to maintain greater control over operations and quality (e.g. In-N-Out Burger). Additionally, large restaurant chains and multi-brand restaurant operators pursue growth through strategic M&A and proprietary technology systems that enhance efficiency and customer retention. For instance, Domino’s built an in-house tech ecosystem that automates and optimizes various internal processes (e.g. order management, inventory tracking and communication), while Darden Restaurants acquired Ruth’s Chris Steak House to expand its fine dining portfolio. Within the long tail, incumbents differentiate through niche specialization, regional focus or concept innovation. For example, Golden Krust specializes in Jamaican patties and other Caribbean cuisines, while Bojangles primarily serves the Southeastern region of the US.

What is the level of investor activity in the US Restaurant chains industry?

Investor-led interest has been limited, with ~20% of identified assets backed by financial sponsors (as of July 2025). Herein, sponsor-led interest mainly stems from (i) potential efficiency gains and cost reduction through automation and AI tools, (ii) stronger customer retention and revenue uplift driven by loyalty programs, as well as (iii) accelerated off-premises growth supported by growth in food delivery volumes. Additionally, where investors do participate, they remain willing to pay premium valuations for franchise-driven concepts that combine scale, digital engagement and strong unit economics with a path for national expansion. On the other hand, deterring factors for investors include (i) margin pressure due to volatile ingredient prices and inflation, (ii) labor shortages worsened by tight immigration policies, as well as (iii) decline in demand for traditional fast food amid growth in health and nutrition awareness.

What are the key ESG considerations in the US Restaurant chains industry?

ESG topics primarily revolve around environmental and social matters. Environmental concerns mainly relate to food waste, methane emissions and plastic pollution from single-use packaging. To address this, incumbents adopt donation programs, enhance inventory and preparation controls, invest in sustainable packaging and increase the use of recyclable or renewable materials. Social topics mainly relate to wage disparity, employee burnout, potential health and safety violations and the rising scrutiny over diet-related health outcomes. Herein, restaurant chains implement automation to ease routine tasks, offer employee benefits to reduce turnover and promote healthier menus with transparent ingredient sourcing.

Company benchmarking

Company benchmarking

Restaurant chains Industry

Market growth

Market growth

Deloitte (October 2024) valued the North American food service market at ~€735.0bn in size in 2023 and forecasts it to reach ~€835.0bn by 2028 (+2.6% CAGR 2023-2028)

The US fast food market is projected to grow from ~$330.6bn in value in 2025 to ~$436.1bn by 2029 (+7.2% CAGR 2025-2029; OysterLink, June 2025)

Technavio (December 2024) estimates that the US fast casual restaurant market generated ~$93.9bn in revenue in 2024 and expects it to reach ~$178.4bn by 2029 (+13.7% CAGR 2024-2029)

Technavio (December 2024) estimates that the US fast casual restaurant market generated ~$93.9bn in revenue in 2024 and expects it to reach ~$178.4bn by 2029 (+13.7% CAGR 2024-2029)

Positive drivers

Positive drivers

The emergence and adoption of technology (e.g. automation, AI) boost the US restaurant industry through increased efficiency, lower labor costs and stronger customer engagement. Herein, kiosks, AI-based voice order systems in drive-thrus, mobile apps and digital menus reduce wait times and support repeat visits, as users of restaurant-specific apps show much higher revisit intent (Houlihan Lokey, May 2025; Pixbit Solutions, February 2025; Medium, December 2023)

The growth in loyalty programs serves as a key tool for restaurant chains to strengthen customer engagement and increase revenue. These programs help operators collect detailed behavioral data and use it to tailor experiences that lead to more frequent visits and higher spend per customer. To illustrate, ~47% of restaurant chain operators in the US plan to add new discounts, deals or value promotions to drive customer traffic (NRA, February 2025; Houlihan Lokey, January 2024)

The rise in food delivery volumes creates a major growth channel for US restaurant chains through access to off-premise customers and greater order volume. Herein, Gen Z leads this shift with over twice as many orders per week and higher spend per order than older age groups, driven by a strong preference for convenience and fast service (CloudKitchens, April 2025; Deliverect, February 2025)

Negative drivers

Negative drivers

Increased volatility in ingredient prices could strain bottom-line margins for restaurant chain operators in the coming years. Herein, persistent inflation in key ingredients (e.g. beef, eggs) due to supply chain issues, climate shocks and global demand pressures may force sharper menu price increases or smaller portions, which could result in customer loss and weaker brand perception (The Dairy Site, March 2025)

Rising shortage of skilled labor will affect the operations of US restaurant chain operators. Herein, according to the NRA, ~70% of operators report unfilled roles and ~45% say they lack enough staff to meet current demand. At the same time, stricter immigration policies add to the strain, as immigrants make up >20% of the restaurant workforce (NetSuite, December 2024; NRA, February 2024; The Food Institute, November 2023)

Greater health awareness is expected to reduce demand for traditional fast-food items. As consumers place more value on low-calorie, plant-based and clean-label foods, fast-food chains may face pressure to revise core menus built around processed, high-fat products, which could alienate long-standing customers (Vocal, July 2023)

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